Fabio Capello - Wants break

Statistics indicate that English clubs suffer through absence of winter break in Premier League

Following the debacle of England's World Cup performance, the finger of blame has been pointed in all kinds of directions.  Some have accused Fabio Capello of grave mistakes, others have condemned player arrogance and inevitably the question of whether there should be a winter break in the Premier League has reared its head again.

It was perhaps unsurprising to hear Capello himself call for a winter break, by way of explanation for England's failings. 

He said, "All the English players were really tired at this competition."

Comparing England's woeful performance to the entertaining Germans, Capello's reasoning  is simple – The Bundesliga has the benefit of a winter break and so "Germany always arrive at the second part of the season and do very well in the Champions League. "

Although any England coach often finds himself at loggerheads with Premier League managers, many appear to agree with Capello when it comes to the question of a winter break.

England coach and Premier League bosses in unison on winter break

Aston Villa boss Martin O'Neill said it would be "of great benefit" and explained that it was no coincidence that he led Celtic to a UEFA Cup final during a season where the Scottish league enjoyed time off during the winter months.

Sir Alex Ferguson recently added his voice to the 'pro-break' camp, claiming that English players are "handicapped" in comparison to their foreign colleagues by playing through the winter.

Rhetoric aside though, there have been few statistics to back up the views of Capello, Ferguson, O'Neill, etc.  That is until now.

Data shows English sides slow down, European sides get stronger as season progresses

IMScouting has used its unique database to calculate the effect of the winter break on top European clubs in comparison to English sides who do not have a rest in the middle of the season. 

We looked at the teams which competed in last season's Champions League from Europe's top five leagues – England's Premier League, the German Bundesliga, Serie A in Italy, Spain's La Liga and Ligue Un in France.  Each endured a similar burden of games played and so we compared their performance through league goals scored, during the fast half of the season (before a winter break) with those in the second half of the season.

Logically, teams that have had the benefit of a break would feel more refreshed during the second half of the campaign and would be likely to score more goals than their English counterparts who have played through a tough winter. 

The results are dramatic. As you can see from the table below, English sides performed far worse in the Premier League than their European rivals during the latter part of the season.  Barcelona scored 26 more goals during the second half of the season than they did in the first half of the campaign.  Similarly, Real Madrid added an additional 22 goals, while in Italy, AC Milan scored an additional 14 and Fiorentina an extra 12.  German and French sides also generally experienced a significant increase in goals scored.

Only five teams scored less goals in the second half of the season in comparison to the first – Remarkably, three of the five teams are English, Manchester United , Arsenal and Liverpool.  Liverpool and Arsenal showed a huge reduction in goals scored, 13 and 19 respectively. Only Chelsea bucked the trend among English sides.     

The statistics indicate that while English sides run out of steam as the season progresses, teams in Spain, Germany, Italy and France, all of whom enjoy a winter break, simply get stronger.

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